By: Ayman Okeil
The 34th President of United States, Dwight Eisenhower, was the first to use the term “domino theory,” when he illustrated the image of falling dominoes, stating that if “South Vietnam fell” under the influence of communism, other countries would follow suit and become communist states.
But will the withdrawal of five European countries—Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland—from the Mine Ban Treaty stop there, or will it mark the beginning of the application of Domino theory that gained prominence in the 1950s? This theory simply suggested that if one country fell under communist influence, others would sequentially fall under the same influence like dominoes. We believe that the withdrawal of these five European countries from the Treaty prohibiting the use, storage, production, and transfer of anti-personnel mines could undoubtedly be followed by the withdrawal of other countries, both European and non-European. This Treaty, adopted on September 18, 1997, and entered into force in March 1999, is one of the most important instruments of international humanitarian law.
Broadening the scope, we find that the issue is not limited to European countries. Since the Trump administration took office on January 20, 2025, United States has threatened to withdraw from several international agreements, and Trump has already signed an executive order to withdraw from Paris Climate Agreement. Withdrawals have not stopped at treaties and international agreements; they have also extended to institutions established by the international community—including United States itself—such as the suspension of U.S. participation in the Human Rights Council, created under the initiative of former Secretary-General Kofi Annan, whose appointment received special U.S. support. United States has also withdrawn from the World Health Organization, and Senator Mike Lee has proposed a bill calling for the U.S. to withdraw from United Nations and stop its funding permanently. It is said that the current U.S. president has not made any contact with UN Secretary-General since taking office, a tradition upheld by previous U.S. presidents. Imagine the extent of the damage that could result from the absence of a country as large as United States from United Nations, which is the world’s strongest economy, a permanent member of the Security Council, and the largest contributor to UN’s regular budget, which has been delayed in its payments since 2023. United Nations is at the core of the multilateral global system, established in 1945 at a critical moment that reflected the collective effort of nations to overcome common challenges. In 2025, we celebrate the eightieth anniversary of its founding.
Without preempting events, we expect, after all that has been mentioned, that the impact of the “domino theory” will not cease if major countries fail to recognize the importance of the multilateral international system, including adhering to commitments related to the international agreements those countries have ratified. The thinking of world leaders after World War II was to create a comprehensive international system—led by United Nations—aimed at preventing the recurrence of the horrors of war. Are there any rational individuals who understand the importance of avoiding new catastrophic conflicts? Or will we wait for another world war to realize once again that the world needs solidarity and cooperation more than it needs conflict and war?
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