As If It Were a Fictional Structure that Collapsed

By. Ayman Okeil

On February 15, 2024, I published an article titled “I’m Going to Make You an Offer That Cannot Be Refused,” in which I stated that “Marlon Brando, the main character in the movie titled “The Godfather”, makes a wise offer to establish peace in the Middle East.” I described this offer as one that cannot be refused by anyone seeking peace and security in the region. The proposal includes a unified Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, governed by a single Palestinian political leadership, where Palestinians and Israelis can live side by side in safety. However, after seven months, it appears that the vision articulated by the Godfather has not resonated, and peace in the Middle East remains elusive, akin to a fantasy structure that has collapsed, reminiscent of Umm Kulthum’s sentiments in the song “Al Atlal.”
I am not inherently pessimistic, but achieving peace in the Middle East has become contingent upon leaders primarily focused on their political futures, along with the lack of decisive action from major powers that do little to prevent the escalation of conflict that threatens to engulf the entire region. I can identify several reasons for the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the absence of peace. Firstly, the Israeli war on Gaza and the reluctance to pursue a two-state solution are significant barriers. Secondly, proxy wars conducted by non-state actors on behalf of external parties that oppose peace in the region exacerbate the situation. Thirdly, there is a limited desire from certain countries, particularly the United States, to foster a calm and stable Middle East. If one were to tally the visits made by American officials, including Secretary of State Blinken, to Israel since October 7, the results would be surprising. It raises the question: does the United States genuinely seek a ceasefire, or does it prefer the continuation of conflict? I believe the answer is evident in our current circumstances. Consequently, breaking the cycle of violence and war in the Middle East and achieving meaningful understandings will remain impossible as long as political leaders and major powers believe that waging war is easier than making peace. They must recognize that the times have changed, and we are no longer in an era where invading nations with swords and spears is acceptable.
To be frank, Palestinian-Israeli conflict is not the sole obstacle to the peace process in the Middle East. The ongoing war in Sudan has also become a significant impediment to regional stability. All attempts at mediation between the conflicting parties have failed, the latest being the Geneva negotiations that commenced on August 14, in which the Sudanese army participated only virtually due to specific demands, including the withdrawal of the Rapid Support Forces from the occupied cities, as they described them, and the implementation of the provisions outlined in the Jeddah Agreement. The Geneva negotiations have primarily managed to secure guarantees for the safe passage of humanitarian aid. However, I believe that, despite the importance of these guarantees, there is a greater need to encourage the parties to engage in negotiations aimed at ending the war. Additionally, it is crucial to urge countries to halt the transfer of more weapons to Sudan. With an estimated 7,000 kilometers of border shared with neighboring countries, Sudan presents opportunities for the illegal transfer of arms, leading to unimaginable losses. By early September, the death toll had surpassed 16,000, with approximately 11 million people displaced and around 26 million facing severe hunger. According to the semi-annual threat assessment issued by the U.S. Intelligence Community, the foreign military support received by both parties in the Sudanese conflict may obstruct any constructive efforts toward achieving peace.
Regarding Palestinian issue, as well as the situations in Sudan, Yemen, and Libya, there exist established and comprehensive plans aimed at fostering peace in each country independently. The successful implementation of these plans could restore stability to the region as a whole. However, some may not want these plans to materialize, as they benefit from the ongoing cycle of violence. Ultimately, achieving peace in the Middle East requires leaders and nations willing to demonstrate the courage to maximize their efforts and utilize all available tools to establish peace as a viable alternative to chaos. This chaos, if it were to occur, would have repercussions that no party would be able to appreciate, in my opinion.